Monday, July 27, 2009

ladder your portfolio- a.k.a. bondage gear

We are likely witnessing a historic period in modern history.

Historic with respect to the movement of interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, employment, GDP growth, quality of life.

The key to outperforming market averages for the fixed-income investor comes down to preparation, discipline and execution.

preparation: this should be the easiest step

- plan 10 years into the future (this is the extreme long run, and should be the most flexible, least certain expectations)

- plan 5 years into the future (without the ability to plan and save with 100% certainty for at least 5 years you will not be able to meet or exceed the average market rates of return)

- once you have determined how much money you will be able to save and invest over the next five years (minimum), begin following the news related to interest rates, inflation and GDP

discipline: this requires the most concentration, understanding and synthesizing of information

- if you are living in a period of rising interest rates, it is to your advantage to avoid longer term and lower yielding bonds (you will not have sufficient cash on hand and will miss the chance to buy new issues at higher average rates)

- if you are living in a period of falling interest rates, it is to your advantage to buy and hold attractive medium to long term bonds ( you will already be outperforming new issues of similar duration),

i.e. if you buy a 5 year bond interest 6% and interest rates fall for 24 months (which they have in the past) , a newly issued 3 year bond may only yield 2.8%, buy you will already have a bond of similar duration (5 years minus 24 months) that pays more than double the new issue. even worse, new 5 year issues will yield only 4.5% interest

- credit ratings matter, you don't' need everything to be AAA, in fact you don't really need to be afraid of having nothing higher than AA (any provincial bond is rated AA).

-if you stick with AAA investments, you will be receiving the lowest yield for 'the most safety', but provinces in Canada will not go bankrupt either, fyi.

- you must avoid a high concentration of BBB, bbb issues and diversify among AA, A, BBB

execution: the most difficult step

- without an effective financial advisor, it is extremely difficult to be confident, informed, decisive, or savvy. An effective financial advisor confirms all of your expectations for how much money it is possible to safely earn, while occasionally exceeding those expectations to improve the quality of your life

- following through on the rules of creating a diversified ladder requires intuition and fact analysis eg. many thought that interest rates would never go lower than they were after 9/11. not only have they never returned to those levels, they have reached a point of essentially absolute zero- the central banks of the western world simply can't lower the interest rates any further. the point is, the investor needs to understand the way defeciet and debt affect the economy and what effect interest rates have on a debt situation (this is basic macro and micro economics)

-only through repeated experience or testing can an individual develop a savvy ability to understand the relationship between interest rates and the type of individual bond purchases they ought to make ( this doesn't mean you need to be a pro, but you will have to actually do homework to understand the nature of interest rate trends, and it's not the easiest, most entertaining topic)

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